New Seat Details - Newton Abbot

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Newton Abbot been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	29,773	54.9%
LAB	12,557	23.1%
LIB	10,553	19.5%
Green	1,076	2.0%
UKIP	135	0.2%
MIN	96	0.2%
OTH	52	0.1%
CON Majority	17,216	31.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Newton Abbot: Map

List of old seats forming part of Newton Abbot

Old seat: Devon Central

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon Central				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Devon	Exe Valley	1,587	Devon East	833	310	93	23	21	0	29	15	1,324
Mid Devon	Boniface	2,798	Devon Central	953	793	487	138	87	0	26	14	2,498
Mid Devon	Bradninch	1,491	Devon Central	686	335	254	21	21	0	9	5	1,331
Mid Devon	Cadbury	1,288	Devon Central	579	286	84	62	19	0	21	11	1,062
Mid Devon	Lawrence	2,761	Devon Central	1,026	717	473	130	70	0	20	11	2,447
Mid Devon	Newbrooke	1,195	Devon Central	577	298	71	14	16	0	17	9	1,002
Mid Devon	Sandford and Creedy	2,653	Devon Central	1,363	546	185	34	68	0	21	11	2,228
Mid Devon	Silverton	1,469	Devon Central	561	336	226	24	41	0	12	6	1,206
Mid Devon	Taw	1,297	Devon Central	638	250	136	18	14	0	7	4	1,067
Mid Devon	Taw Vale	1,315	Devon Central	601	279	120	21	28	0	10	5	1,064
Mid Devon	Upper Yeo	1,334	Devon Central	776	250	74	17	15	0	6	3	1,141
Mid Devon	Way	1,213	Devon Central	683	262	65	15	16	0	11	6	1,058
Mid Devon	Yeo	2,609	Devon Central	1,321	520	304	36	31	0	23	13	2,248
Teignbridge	Ashburton and Buckfastleigh	6,060	Devon Central	2,288	1,495	833	86	170	0	97	53	5,022
Teignbridge	Bovey	6,437	Devon Central	2,594	1,320	714	95	148	0	85	46	5,002
Teignbridge	Chudleigh	4,959	Newton Abbot	2,128	1,172	363	73	141	0	76	41	3,994
Teignbridge	Haytor	2,287	Devon Central	1,015	452	291	34	27	0	31	17	1,867
Teignbridge	Kenn Valley	5,067	Newton Abbot	2,085	932	627	62	114	0	20	11	3,851
Teignbridge	Moorland	2,264	Devon Central	952	533	150	34	82	0	48	26	1,825
Teignbridge	Teign Valley	2,206	Devon Central	1,008	453	123	28	64	0	43	23	1,742
Teignbridge	Teignbridge North	2,423	Devon Central	980	434	195	32	25	0	34	18	1,718
West Devon	Bridestowe	216	Devon Central	96	46	11	3	7	0	4	2	169
West Devon	Chagford	1,152	Devon Central	503	266	74	18	39	0	22	12	934
West Devon	Drewsteignton	1,325	Devon Central	716	223	65	15	31	0	5	3	1,058
West Devon	Exbourne	2,968	Devon Central	1,556	583	141	44	30	0	29	16	2,399
West Devon	Hatherleigh	2,341	Devon Central	1,292	426	120	34	25	0	15	8	1,920
West Devon	Okehampton North	3,642	Devon Central	1,574	854	213	60	92	0	67	36	2,896
West Devon	Okehampton South	2,696	Devon Central	1,248	822	182	132	38	0	50	27	2,499
West Devon	South Tawton	1,515	Devon Central	645	405	95	25	53	0	33	18	1,274
	Total	70,568		31,277	15,598	6,769	1,328	1,533	0	871	470	57,846

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon Central seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newton Abbot

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newton Abbot, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newton Abbot				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Teignbridge	Ambrook	4,767	Totnes	2,263	756	648	0	93	0	0	0	3,760
Teignbridge	Bishopsteignton	2,171	Newton Abbot	927	268	335	0	30	0	0	0	1,560
Teignbridge	Bradley	4,421	Newton Abbot	1,799	675	489	0	27	0	0	0	2,990
Teignbridge	Buckland and Milber	5,546	Newton Abbot	1,979	1,045	1,155	0	86	0	0	0	4,265
Teignbridge	Bushell	4,992	Newton Abbot	2,029	1,025	1,030	0	82	0	0	0	4,166
Teignbridge	College	3,914	Newton Abbot	1,564	726	767	0	75	0	0	0	3,132
Teignbridge	Dawlish Central and North East	7,003	Newton Abbot	2,807	1,176	813	0	114	0	0	0	4,910
Teignbridge	Dawlish South West	3,909	Newton Abbot	1,869	689	411	0	65	0	0	0	3,034
Teignbridge	Ipplepen	2,056	Totnes	812	265	390	0	13	0	0	0	1,480
Teignbridge	Kenton with Starcross	2,356	Newton Abbot	910	380	501	0	40	0	0	0	1,831
Teignbridge	Kerswell-with-Combe	4,634	Newton Abbot	1,914	687	836	0	33	0	0	0	3,470
Teignbridge	Kingsteignton East	4,568	Newton Abbot	2,136	879	506	0	32	0	0	0	3,553
Teignbridge	Kingsteignton West	4,134	Newton Abbot	1,622	682	822	0	31	0	0	0	3,157
Teignbridge	Shaldon and Stokeinteignhead	1,986	Newton Abbot	1,090	212	178	0	14	0	0	0	1,494
Teignbridge	Teignmouth Central	3,732	Newton Abbot	1,822	644	507	0	64	0	0	0	3,037
Teignbridge	Teignmouth East	3,959	Newton Abbot	1,689	604	447	0	61	0	0	0	2,801
Teignbridge	Teignmouth West	3,748	Newton Abbot	1,403	761	766	0	67	0	0	0	2,997
	Total	67,896		28,635	11,474	10,601	0	927	0	0	0	51,637

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newton Abbot seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Newton Abbot

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Newton Abbot
Teignbridge	Bishopsteignton	2,167	Newton Abbot	927	268	335	0	30	0	0	0	1,560
Teignbridge	Bradley	4,152	Newton Abbot	1,799	675	489	0	27	0	0	0	2,990
Teignbridge	Buckland and Milber	5,923	Newton Abbot	1,979	1,045	1,155	0	86	0	0	0	4,265
Teignbridge	Bushell	5,785	Newton Abbot	2,029	1,025	1,030	0	82	0	0	0	4,166
Teignbridge	Chudleigh	5,136	Devon Central	2,128	1,172	363	73	141	0	76	41	3,994
Teignbridge	College	4,350	Newton Abbot	1,564	726	767	0	75	0	0	0	3,132
Teignbridge	Dawlish Central and North East	6,820	Newton Abbot	2,807	1,176	813	0	114	0	0	0	4,910
Teignbridge	Dawlish South West	4,213	Newton Abbot	1,869	689	411	0	65	0	0	0	3,034
Teignbridge	Kenn Valley	4,951	Devon Central	2,085	932	627	62	114	0	20	11	3,851
Teignbridge	Kenton with Starcross	2,543	Newton Abbot	910	380	501	0	40	0	0	0	1,831
Teignbridge	Kerswell-with-Combe	4,819	Newton Abbot	1,914	687	836	0	33	0	0	0	3,470
Teignbridge	Kingsteignton East	4,935	Newton Abbot	2,136	879	506	0	32	0	0	0	3,553
Teignbridge	Kingsteignton West	4,385	Newton Abbot	1,622	682	822	0	31	0	0	0	3,157
Teignbridge	Shaldon and Stokeinteignhead	2,076	Newton Abbot	1,090	212	178	0	14	0	0	0	1,494
Teignbridge	Teignmouth Central	4,219	Newton Abbot	1,822	644	507	0	64	0	0	0	3,037
Teignbridge	Teignmouth East	3,891	Newton Abbot	1,689	604	447	0	61	0	0	0	2,801
Teignbridge	Teignmouth West	4,163	Newton Abbot	1,403	761	766	0	67	0	0	0	2,997
	Total	74,528		29,773	12,557	10,553	135	1,076	0	96	52	54,242

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Newton Abbot. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Anne Marie Morris (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	74,528
Turnout:	72.8%

Newton Abbot: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Newton Abbot: Overview

Introduction